Sunday, April 3, 2011

S18 Draft Review by holer

Little Rock Minute Men

Needs: 3B, SP As is expected, safetyman has very few real needs to fill. SP's of an elite variety are always a good thing, but overall safetyman appears to have the natural progression through attrition and development well covered.

Draft Expectation: Very High
8 picks in the top 5 rounds including 4 first rounders. The only drawback is that none of the first rounders are above pick no. 30. That's ok though because there can still be some decent talent found in the supplemental picks.

Draft Preparation: Safetyman has tailored his budget to fit his draft plans very snuggly. The IFA market has been sacrificed completely leaving the Minute Men with evenly distributed funding for both his college and high school scouts. Safetyman has also spent highly into advanced scouting to get an accurate picture of the skills of the prospects.

Prospects

Round 1 Pick 30 SP/RP Rey Camilli
Not blessed with excessive amounts of stamina or durability, Camilli may be best suited for a long relief role. With exceptional command of his top 3 pitches, and equivalent effectiveness against both left and righthanded hitters, he still has great value and importance on the pitching staff. If safetyman finds his rotation in a bind, he can bring Camilli in for an emergency start and get 5 strong innings. At pick number 30 he is a solid choice.
ML Projection: 100 IP/6-8 W/.230-.240 OAV/2.50-2.80 ERA

Round 1 Supp Pick 40 SS Joey Rudolph
Personally, with shortstops who have range and glove ratings below 80, I like to move them to 3B. We'll see what safetyman does with Rudolph. At the plate, Rudolph hits well for a shortstop, but is a bit below par for a 3B. His true calling may come as an extremely versatile utility player. A good supplemental 1st rounder.
ML Projection: 25 HR/.275 BA/5-10 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 45 C Melvin Rose
A gem of a find at no. 45, Rose is the player who many other teams should have been looking for by this point in the draft. As a catcher, his low durability is not an issue as most teams already carry a more than capable backup at all times. His defense is as good, if not better, than most ML starting catchers, and his offensive ability is all-world. Add a makeup rating that is a coach's dream and you have the player who may be that missing link to take you to the promised land.
ML Projection: 120 G/30-35 HR/.340 BA/0 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 53 SP/RP Gill Prokopec
A similar situation to that of Rudolph, Prokopec could be a vital link between the starters and the short relief, providing spot start duty where necessary. A trend is beginning to develop here where safetyman seems to be picking up numerous players with extremely high makeup ratings, which is a pretty good philosophy moving forward.
ML Projection: 130-150 IP/8-12 W/.240 OAV/2.50-2.70 ERA

Round 3 Pick 95 2B Norman Stevenson
I'm going to have to remember the name Bo Herzner for the future. This is the name of Stevenson's agent who talked Stevenson into asking for a signing bonus higher than Little Rock's 1st selection Camilli, and he actually got it. I'm thinking Safetyman presumed Stevenson would thumb his nose at the offer, and safety would simply get another 3rd round pick next year. Obviously, that didn't happen. Stevenson does however represent pretty good value in the 3rd round. He has great range and baserunning ability, and is also a good contact hitter. He may find time as a utility player on some teams.
ML Projection: 5 HR/.260-.270 BA/20 SB

Round 3 Pick 113 1B Felipe Chavez
At first glance, he does not appear to bring much, but he does have a bat that can do some damage. We may see him make some spot appearances as a pinch hitter, or filling in at 1B.
ML Projection: Utility player

Round 4 Pick 145 RF Billy King
Similar to Chavez, but should hit ceiling at AAA.
ML Projection: Emergency replacement

Round 5 Pick 177 RP Jim Kouzmanoff
Capable of putting up very limited numbers of quality ML relief innings. In round 5, Kouzmanoff is the type of player an owner hopes to find.
ML Projection: 40 IP/2-3 W/.250 OAV/5 SV/3.20-3.60 ERA

Hidden Gems: none foreseeable

Overall Grade: A+
safetyman seemed to spend the whole draft picking up the players that everyone else was missing. C Melvin Rose may be the most underrated player in the draft. If he can be pushed to 120 games per season and get spelled by a solid backup, Little Rock will have a catching tandem that is the envy of the league. In summation, after waiting until pick number 30 to make his first selection, safetyman may have put in the best performance of this draft.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

S18 Draft Review by holer

Santa Fe Sluggers

Needs: C, 3B, SS, SP
Similar needs to Jackson in that they have an aging Catcher who needs to be replaced in a few seasons.
The remainder of the system appears lopsided with an abundance of talent available for certain positions, and glaring ommissions at other positions.

Draft Expectations: Low
With no extra picks, and having lost his 2nd round pick due to free agent signings, tony23 is left with only 4 picks in the top 5 rounds. Pick no. 2 isn't until 100th overall.

Draft Preparation: To get anything out of this year's draft, tony23 had to make his 11th overall pick count. Very low scouting numbers across the board means the Sluggers had to get very lucky to pull down an adequate pick at number 11.

Prospects

Round 1 Pick 11
RF Francis Kelly - Considering the obstacles tony23 faced in finding a worthy candidate for the 11th overall pick, he did a credible job in finding Kelly. Kelly will be a very effective power hitter and has both the durability and makeup to maximize his potential, and play every day. He also has the base running skills to swipe a few bases, if he is played that way. Defensively, he is better suited to 1B where he will make fewer errors with his glove than in RF. If played properly, he should make several all-star appearances.
ML projection: 40-45 HR/.300-.310 BA/15 SB 

Round 3 Pick 100
SP Luis Montana - 3 plus pitches, outstanding velocity/control splits, and a good groundball/flyball ratio will allow Montana to excell in his rise through the minors. That, however, is as far as he will go. He may get pulled up to the bigs to fill in for injuries, but once there, the big bats will feed on him. Look for a AAA ceiling.
ML projection: Emergency replacement
  
Round 4 Pick 132
RP Esmerling Nunez - Very similar to Montana in that he should have no problem rising through the minor league bullpens until he hits a brick wall at AAA.

Round 5 Pick 164
LF Antonio Song - Like Kelly, he should be moved to 1B to cut back on errors. Offensively he could rise to the high minors, but idealy you would like to see more power from your 1B. Watch for him to bounce around once he reaches AA.

Hidden Gems: none foreseeable

Overall Grade: D
Francis Kelly saved this from being a total disaster, but even with him, none of the real long range needs were addressed. The few areas where the sluggers have a surplus of talent is where they used their higher draft choices.

S18 Draft Review by holer

Jackson Colonels

Needs: C, SP, RP
Stud C Wes Dickerson is beginning to age and a suitable future replacement needs to be found now. Talented short relief specialists also seem to be in short supply.

Draft Expectations: Moderate
Having lost a top 30 pick through FA signings, ml4ku still has 7 picks in the top 5 rounds to work with. Luckily, catchers and relief pitchers are amongst the easiest positions to still find decent talent below the top 30.

Draft Preparation: ml4ku has chosen to lean heavily on more polished, and well known, college talent, rather than dip into the youngsters at the high school level. He also prefers home-grown talent over the more unpredictable foreign market. A very low 8 mill prospect budget is not surprising given his lack of a pricey top 30 pick, or his reluctance to reach outside of North America.

Round 1 Supp Pick 41
2B Carlos Cortes - about as safe a pick as humanly possible, Stanford grad Cortes provides maturity, leadership, and intelligence to go along with a bit of talent as well. Although he won't break any records, he will show up to play every day. Not bad for pick no. 41
ML projections: 10-15 HR/.270 BA/15 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 54
RP Joaquin Crespo - Innings, innings, and more innings. Remember Mark Eichhorn? Well, here he is again! Nothing flashy, just doing the job between the starter and the short relief guys.
ML projections: 80-90 G/110-130 IP/5-10 W/5 SV/.270 OAV

Round 2 Pick 61
RF Miguel Andino - discount RF. The guy you have on your team until you find someone better. Has both power and baserunning skills which should keep him in the bigs for a few years.
ML projections: 25 HR/.240-.250 BA/15-20 SB

Round 2 Pick 86
LF Justin Springer - May see limited ML action. Essentially a career AAA player

Round 3 Pick 118
3B Fausto Belliard - Will max out at AAA, probably with a shift to RF.

Round 4 Pick 150
SP Zephyr Randolph - no hope of signing. Mother needs to get her head out of the clouds (or other places)

Round 5 Pick 182
SP Jack Coke - very solid minor league pitcher, Coke does not have the splits to make the final jump. Maybe he should look at getting his pilot's licence.

Hidden Gems: none foreseeable

Overall Grade: B
To pick up 3 potential ML players without a top 30 pick is no small feat. Considering ml4ku likes to build primarily through trades and free agency, he did pretty well.

Thursday, March 31, 2011

S18 Draft Review by holer

AL South

Wichita Rocks
Needs: CF, SP. Also, overall defensive ability at the skill positions could be upgraded

Draft Expectations: Very High. With 3 1st round picks and 8 picks in the first 5 rounds, Wichita should expect a solid influx of fresh talent into the system.

Draft Preparation: With so many picks at the top end you would think barjaz would have spent more heavily on scouting. On a more positive note, barjaz maximized his prospect budget to ensure he had the cash available to sign whomever he wanted.

Prospects

Round 1 Pick 18
 2B Robin Shipley  - high school standout with solid defensive ability, a strong bat, and blazing speed to combine with great baserunning instincts. Shipley is a prototypical 5 tool player. A steal at No. 18 overall, he will quickly ascend the minor league ladder and have a solid ML career. His outstanding range will make him a yearly contender for the 2B Gold Glove, and look for several all-star selections as well.
ML projection: 15-20 HR/.285 BA/50-60 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 38
 3B Achilles Hogan  - Another high school star, Achilles is not the polished player Shipley is. His defense is mediocre at best for a 3B and may be better suited to RF. although he can run, at the ML level he needs to be selective or he could cost his team runs, and ultimately, some games. That being said, he is a solid hitter and should have no problem finding work on an ML team somewhere.
ML projection: 20-25 HR/.260-.270 BA/10-15 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 49
SP Butch Cradle  - A highly talented pitcher, Cradle would have gone much higher in the draft if not for his significant control problems. He was a legend in junior college for beaning the opposing team's mascot with wild pitches on 3 seperate occasions (New Yorkers do love their unusual sources of entertainment don't they?) At pick No. 49 he does present a worthwhile gamble.
ML projection: 10-12 W/3.80 ERA/150K/110BB/.220 OAV

Round 2 Pick 62
SS Charley Kimbrel  - Miscast as a SS, Kimbel is much better suited for 3B, a position which he would be a defensive stud. He is not a basestealing threat, but does run the bases capably. Offensively, he consistently puts the bat on the ball, but only with a modicum of success. At best he can fill in at the ML level as a utility infielder as ML pitching will overwhelm him.
ML projection: spot duty

Round 2 Pick 75
CF Rob Vining  - Outstanding defensive CF, Vining is a solid pickup at No. 75 overall. He can easily fill in at any OF position in a defensive role, plus his speed and baserunning make him a solid pinch running option.
ML projection: role player in close games

Round 3 Pick 107
LF Harry Romo  - Not enough talent in any one area to warrant time in big leagues. May see a cup of coffee as an emergency replacement

Round 4 Pick 139
SS Marv Burke  - Another outstanding find at No. 139 overall. Easily capable of filling in at any position defensively at the big league level. His uncanny ability to hit left-handed pitching will also earn him at-bats in that capacity as a pinch-hitter.
ML projection: role player in close games

Round 5 Pick 171
2B Clem Haren - Huge signability issues. Good luck on that 5.5 mil bonus there buddy!

Hidden Gems: RP Farmer Torres ?

Overall grade: A
Amazing how barjaz finds such solid top-end talent with such a low scouting budget.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Early NL action.

What is striking so far in the NL this early season is the PARITY.  Yes, tmantom3285 has jumped out to an impressive 18-4 record (I thought this would have been St. Louis), but there are 11 of the remaining 15 teams who have at least 10 wins. 

Personally, I feel that parity is a good sign for Arod.  A balanced league without too many top heavy teams and too many disaster teams is a good thing.  If this continues to play out, as teams remain competitive and fight for playoffs spots, we could see some very interesting trades.

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Pre-Season Team Rankings

by  holer , bigparb13 , dengodd2 &  safetyman

The Elite:
1. St. Louis Redbirds
Defending Champions - #1 overall by default; Alex Torres going to be even better this year.
2. Chicago Blagos
Hard luck team needs final piece to get over hump. Can langer replace Albie Villano?
3.  Jackson Colonels
An ever improving team making it's way up the rankings led by Ralph "Billy the Kid" Kydd.
4. Anaheim Hell Raisin Jalapenos
Knocking at the door for a few seasons now.  Has EBzer's window passed?
5. Syracuse Psychos
  Stars getting older but still enough for legendary owner who knows how to win.


The Challengers:

6. Iowa City Rounders
Gio Hernandez and solid pitching staff leads the way, but can they score enough runs?
7. Wichita Rocks
Majority of the team in it's prime, ready to win now in super tough division.
8. Little Rock Minute Men
Safetyman always has them in the hunt and is a master of the big trade
9. Burlington Booya
A team of stars and fillers needs more consistency.  Are they ready to make a World Series run?
10. Arizona Sun Dogs
Plenty of firepower with Omar Castillo and co. but 40_dog  needs to shore up the rotation  


Middle of the Pack:

11. Toronto Legion
  The "Ghostship" ran itself to the World Series last year.  Advice for thisdude62....do nothing.
12. New Orleans Pelicans
Not as powerful as they once were, but S17 AL MVP Frank Robbins and co are plenty dangerous   
13. Vancouver Shock
Good balance. No glaring weaknesses, but no real strengths.  Can Raymond Brock bounce back?
14. Montreal Coqs
ex-Flockers, can sir_hc121 fill the legendary shoes of dblaine? He needs Aquino to be huge.
15. Tacoma Downriggers
Very young team looking to improve with holer back firmly in control.
16.  Santa Fe Sluggers
Better than record. Good offense/bullpen. Abysmal rotation.  Can I get a witness!!!
17. Augusta Polar Bears
Where's the starting pitching?  Better hope young bashers can win 11-10 every night.
18. Scranton Squirrels
Shockingly kow stamina pitching staff.  It's going to be hard........that's what she's said.
19. Trenton Thunder
Below average rotation, brilliant bullpen.  Karl Hurst will need to be extra special.
20.  Kansas City KC
Once mighty franchise is a shadow of former selves.  Can new owner make them a winner?

Still got work to do:

21. Washington DC Senators
Mediocre pitching better hope the Senator have a big season at the plate.
22. Cleveland Curse
A few sluggers but pitching is scary bad.  Free Yank Bryant!!
23. Las Vegas Bishes
Enough pieces to start climbing.  Will it be this year or next for funhat to make his move?
24. Scottsdale Raiders
Perenial underachievers.  No more Dan Stuart and the swan song of Dante Ming.
25. New York Yankees
Can compete, but rotation is a long, long way away....in a galaxy far, far away.
26. Texas Wildcats
Spent huge this off-season.  Time will tell if this translates into wins.  

Hurting:


27. Tampa Bay Don Caesars
Everything is middle of the road. 
 28. Buffalo Springfield
Some offense, but major pitching issues.
29. Toledo Mud Hens
Some good building blocks to work with
30. Philadelphia River Rats
Not enough of everything.
31. Milwaukee Boomers
Bigjasiu knows where he stands and he will bring this team back.
32. Seattle Water Wolves
Surprisingly, there are some adequate pieces to begin building with.