Wednesday, April 6, 2011

S18 Draft Review by holer

Kansas City KC

Needs: 1B, SP
The most glaring need of this team is without a doubt starting pitching. They have some capable arms in the bullpen, but the guys who are toeing the rubber at the start of each game are being slaughtered. At the everyday positions, Isumedici has most needs already covered. If not already in the bigs, help is on the way through the system. In targeting a "need" at 1B, I am really targeting a need for a big run producer in the heart of the batting order.

Draft Expectations: Very High
Starting with the 14th overall pick, Isumedicihad 3 1st round picks and 8 picks overall in the first 5 rounds. This represents not only a great opportunity to add depth to a developing farm system, but also to add some very much needed starting pitching help.

Draft Preparation:
Again, like many others this season, Isumedici has sacrificed the IFA market. Is there some insider information that I'm not privy to here? As a result, Isumedici has been able to adequately prepare monetarily for a deep draft run. His team salary is slightly below average, and the remainder of his budget is spread evenly between the prospect budget and his scouting department

Prospects

Round 1 Pick 14 COF Bonk Lincoln
Although assigned to RF, Lincoln's arm is not strong enough to effectively play that position. His natural position is in LF. Offensively, Isumedici nailed this pick as Lincoln represents the solid middle-of-the-order bat that this franchise desperately needs. Combining his bat with both good speed and outstanding baserunning IQ, Lincoln should hold the number 3 slot in the batting order for as long as the KC's want him there. He has elite quality splits for both effectiveness, and contact/batting eye. With modest 25 HR power, it should take a pretty special hitter to unseat him from the number 3 slot.
ML Projection: 25HR/.330-.340 BA/30-35 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 37 SS Ira Flores
With both his range and glove below an 80 rating, Flores will struggle at SS, especially once he arrives in the ML. His low durability rating will mean one of two things, either he will need another player on the team capable of frequently giving him rest time, or he will have to be the utility guy filling in wherever he is needed. He certainly represents a pretty good quality utility player. Offensively, he can provide some much needed run support from the lower half of the order. At pick 37, he is about what you should expect.
ML Projection: 15 HR/.270 BA/30 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 48 SS Oscar Trammell
Trammell has signability issues and may, or may not, become available to the team. If he were to sign up, he would add another good quality utility player similar to Ira Flores, except with more power and less running ability.
ML Projection: 25-30 HR/.250-.260 BA/5-10 SB

Round 2 Pick 68 SS Cole Hochevar
Although Hochevar belongs to the rare species that is the slugging SS, he is the bargain basement cheap plastic model. Although his bio says "made in the USA" he is really "made in China". His defense is very sub-par for a SS and he would probably struggle at 3B. Although he does have plenty of power, he will be seriously challenged to get the bat on the ball at the ML level. Expect him to max out at AAA.

Round 2 Pick 71 3B Blake Spencer
Again a bargain basement version at 3B, Spencer at least has enough going for him that he could find himself doing spot duty in the bigs as an IF replacement.
ML Projection: Spot duty/utility player

Round 3 Pick 103 SP Ignacio Matos
It's a shame Matos has such pronounced control problems, because he otherwise has such promising talent. If Isumedici were lucky enough to get Matos DITRed, he would be looking at a top 3 starter in his rotation, but lets face it, the chances of that happening are slim to none. So in the end, Matos will probably get a look in the bigs, where he will implode, and will then finish out his career in AAA.
ML Projection: Cup of Coffee

Round 4 Pick 135 LF Darryl Terry
some power and baserunning ability here, but not enough to escape AAA.

Round 5 Pick 167 2B Chad Laxton
Could be used by someone as a 2B/CF backup, but probably won't happen. Ceiling AAA

Hidden Gems: C Eric Creek?

Overall Grade: C+
After nailing his first pick with Bonk lincoln, Isumedici started to drift away from what his franchise really needed, quality pitching. In the end, after all his picks were examined, he should have expected, and gotten more for his picks.

S18 Draft Review by holer

Anaheim Hell Raisin Jalapenos

Needs: 2B, C, SP, OF
At 2B, superstud Pedro Bonilla only has 1 yr left on his contract and EBzer currently has nobody obvious to backfill that position if he bolts. Geovany Molina needs to be moved from CF to either a corner OF position, or to 2B as Bonilla's possible successor. Tony Weiss and Sven Baez at the corner OF positions are also coming up to the end of their contracts, leaving Sergei Danks as the only legitimate successor. Elvis Collins and Ignacio Ramirez are DH's that are being forced to squat behind the plate. The pitching situation will be covered further down in the review.

Draft Expectations: Low
Starting with the 31st overall pick (the price of success), EBzer only has the standard 1 pick per round throughout the draft. This may change starting next season as he has numerous big names approaching free agency.

Draft Preparation:
Being near the top of the leagues payroll (number 3 this year) has it's price, and that means costs have to be cut elsewhere. As a result, EBzer had to be very selective about where he spent his money. As many other's have done this year, he has completely sacrificed the IFA market, allowing him to distribute modest funding to his domestic scouting department. The drawback here is that he had little money left to allocate to either his advance scouting, or his prospect budget. The good news is that with his first pick being so far down, he won't have to spend much on signing bonuses.

Prospects

Round 1 Pick 31 SP Jared Sexson
EBzer's first pick this year was really a no brainer. Even with several of his core position players staring down free agency, he had to start re-stocking the minor league shelves with fresh arms. Most of his starting rotation is aging, and the cupboard behind them is almost bare. At pick 31, Sexson is about as good an SP as you will get. His numbers are all generally good, except for two glaring areas of concern. His effectiveness splits, and his groundball/flyball ratio. In the AL, this means a whole lot of big-time sluggers will be taking him yard. Still he represents an opportunity to plug one of the many holes that will be appearing in the rotation.
ML Projection: 230-250 IP/12-15 W/200 K/40-50 HR/.280 OAV/4.00-4.50 ERA

Round 2 Pick 87 RP Storm Eckenstahler
Eckenstahler is a nice pickup at no. 87 overall. He isn't going to be able to pitch a lot of innings, but the innings he does pitch will be quality ones. He is best suited to a long relief role, and will only be available about every 5-6 games. As a sinkerball pitcher, he will keep the ball on the ground and will need a strong defense behind him.
ML Projection: 60-70 IP/5 W/.230-.240 OAV/2.75-3.00 ERA

Round 3 Pick 119 SP Pete Williams
Another victim of an overbearing mother, Williams jumped when the boss yelled "jump", and he will be finishing out his education.

Round 4 Pick 151 SP Luis Wilfredo
Wilfredo represents a nice minor league pitcher, and will have a nice long minor league career. Ceiling AAA

Round 5 Pick 183 LF Billy Crawford
Aside from the fact his defense is only good enough to effectively play 1B, Crawford has enough good hitting numbers to carry him through to the high minors. Look for a ceiling at AA, or possibly AAA if he is desperately needed there.

Hidden Gems: P Dann Lowe

Overall Grade: C-
EBzer currently faces a win now situation, because in a few short years, he will be in full rebuild mode. He has shown a strong ability to build a winning team through free agency, so his situation may not be as dire as it appears. In this draft, he really did not have many options to work with, and as a result, only picked up two obvious future major leaguers.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

S18 Draft Review by holer

AL West

Seattle Water Wolves

Needs: All positions and pitchers
This team is the ultimate rebuild project. I personally hope reigny can start stocking the lower minors with some talent that will ultimately pull this franchise out of it's funk.

Draft Expectations: Low
Hard to believe that the team with the 1st overall pick has low draft expectations, but such is the state of the Seattle franchise. Reigny had no departing free agents of any value to bring in extra compensation, and he had to give up his 2nd round pick to sign some free agent talent. As such, he has 4 picks in the top 5 rounds.

Draft Preparation: By signing the high priced free agents that he did, reigny left his budget allocation heavy on player salary, and dangerously light on administrative infrastructure. As a result, the team which is a perrenial last place finisher, is 8th this year in team salary. Fortunately he has enough funding set aside to sign some prospects, but very little money to actually find any prospects.

Prospects

Round 1 Pick 1 CF Tom Diaz
When drafting 1st overall, you try to follow one basic rule. Find the best player available in the draft. Sometimes this can be a very daunting task as we all have our own vision of what constitutes "the best player". As I look at Tom Diaz, I have a very difficult time quantifying him as "the best player". Don't get me wrong, he is definitely a very good player, but the player I see as 1st overall has very few weaknesses. Diaz, who is listed as a CF has very limited range for that position, and a glove that is not strong enough to compensate for that lack of range. He may in fact be better suited, and far more comfortable as a 2B. Although capable at running the bases, he won't steal any games for you. At the plate, he has an elite contact rating to go along with good power and a good batting eye. his effectiveness ratings are pretty average, and a mediocre makeup rating makes those weaknesses stand out even more. In the end I would say that in Diaz, reigny got a good player, but not a great player.
ML Projection: 25-30 HR/.290-.300 BA/10 SB

Round 3 Pick 90 SS Greg Lush
Lush would be a stretch to make most lineups at any point in time, but in Seattle he may be asked to help hold the fort until more, and better, help arrives. Defensively, he is substandard at SS, but is a player reigny can turn to in the very near future. Offensively, he will often be overwhelmed by big league pitching, but has enough power, and a good enough batting eye, to produce some runs.
ML Projection: 25 HR/.225-.235 BA/5 SB

Round 4 Pick 122 RP Michel Rijo
Once again, in other organizations, Rijo would probably be held to AAA, but in Seattle he will see plenty of time in a set-up role. Considering he was a 4th round pick at no. 122, he was a pretty good pick-up. He has good command of his 2 plus pitches, and an attractive groundball/flyball ratio. He will perform adequately against righthanders, and struggle against lefties, but such is life in the Water Wolf bullpen.
ML Projection: 70 G/80 IP/3 W/.280-.300 OAV/4.00-4.50 ERA

Round 5 Pick 154 RP Harpo Davis
A surprisingly good find for reigny in the 5th round. Davis would be able to spend ML bullpen time on most ML teams and really only has one flaw, which is his occasional loss of control. He has 4 very good pitches, and a good groundball/flyball ratio. If he were fortunate enough to be DITR'ed, you would probably be looking at Seattle's future closer. In fact, you may be seeing the closer regardless of DITR.
ML Projection: 50 G/50 IP/2 W/20 SV/.260 OAV/3.50 ERA

Hidden Gems: C Kiko Stein?, RP George Forrest?

Overall Grade: C+
When I first saw Diaz selected as 1st overall, I thought this was going to be a disaster. But then I started seeing some very helpful pieces starting to emerge in later rounds, and I had to re-think my overview of what this draft actually represented. In summation, I believe this draft has been a mild success for reigny and gives him something to build on.

S18 Draft Review by holer

Little Rock Minute Men

Needs: 3B, SP As is expected, safetyman has very few real needs to fill. SP's of an elite variety are always a good thing, but overall safetyman appears to have the natural progression through attrition and development well covered.

Draft Expectation: Very High
8 picks in the top 5 rounds including 4 first rounders. The only drawback is that none of the first rounders are above pick no. 30. That's ok though because there can still be some decent talent found in the supplemental picks.

Draft Preparation: Safetyman has tailored his budget to fit his draft plans very snuggly. The IFA market has been sacrificed completely leaving the Minute Men with evenly distributed funding for both his college and high school scouts. Safetyman has also spent highly into advanced scouting to get an accurate picture of the skills of the prospects.

Prospects

Round 1 Pick 30 SP/RP Rey Camilli
Not blessed with excessive amounts of stamina or durability, Camilli may be best suited for a long relief role. With exceptional command of his top 3 pitches, and equivalent effectiveness against both left and righthanded hitters, he still has great value and importance on the pitching staff. If safetyman finds his rotation in a bind, he can bring Camilli in for an emergency start and get 5 strong innings. At pick number 30 he is a solid choice.
ML Projection: 100 IP/6-8 W/.230-.240 OAV/2.50-2.80 ERA

Round 1 Supp Pick 40 SS Joey Rudolph
Personally, with shortstops who have range and glove ratings below 80, I like to move them to 3B. We'll see what safetyman does with Rudolph. At the plate, Rudolph hits well for a shortstop, but is a bit below par for a 3B. His true calling may come as an extremely versatile utility player. A good supplemental 1st rounder.
ML Projection: 25 HR/.275 BA/5-10 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 45 C Melvin Rose
A gem of a find at no. 45, Rose is the player who many other teams should have been looking for by this point in the draft. As a catcher, his low durability is not an issue as most teams already carry a more than capable backup at all times. His defense is as good, if not better, than most ML starting catchers, and his offensive ability is all-world. Add a makeup rating that is a coach's dream and you have the player who may be that missing link to take you to the promised land.
ML Projection: 120 G/30-35 HR/.340 BA/0 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 53 SP/RP Gill Prokopec
A similar situation to that of Rudolph, Prokopec could be a vital link between the starters and the short relief, providing spot start duty where necessary. A trend is beginning to develop here where safetyman seems to be picking up numerous players with extremely high makeup ratings, which is a pretty good philosophy moving forward.
ML Projection: 130-150 IP/8-12 W/.240 OAV/2.50-2.70 ERA

Round 3 Pick 95 2B Norman Stevenson
I'm going to have to remember the name Bo Herzner for the future. This is the name of Stevenson's agent who talked Stevenson into asking for a signing bonus higher than Little Rock's 1st selection Camilli, and he actually got it. I'm thinking Safetyman presumed Stevenson would thumb his nose at the offer, and safety would simply get another 3rd round pick next year. Obviously, that didn't happen. Stevenson does however represent pretty good value in the 3rd round. He has great range and baserunning ability, and is also a good contact hitter. He may find time as a utility player on some teams.
ML Projection: 5 HR/.260-.270 BA/20 SB

Round 3 Pick 113 1B Felipe Chavez
At first glance, he does not appear to bring much, but he does have a bat that can do some damage. We may see him make some spot appearances as a pinch hitter, or filling in at 1B.
ML Projection: Utility player

Round 4 Pick 145 RF Billy King
Similar to Chavez, but should hit ceiling at AAA.
ML Projection: Emergency replacement

Round 5 Pick 177 RP Jim Kouzmanoff
Capable of putting up very limited numbers of quality ML relief innings. In round 5, Kouzmanoff is the type of player an owner hopes to find.
ML Projection: 40 IP/2-3 W/.250 OAV/5 SV/3.20-3.60 ERA

Hidden Gems: none foreseeable

Overall Grade: A+
safetyman seemed to spend the whole draft picking up the players that everyone else was missing. C Melvin Rose may be the most underrated player in the draft. If he can be pushed to 120 games per season and get spelled by a solid backup, Little Rock will have a catching tandem that is the envy of the league. In summation, after waiting until pick number 30 to make his first selection, safetyman may have put in the best performance of this draft.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

S18 Draft Review by holer

Santa Fe Sluggers

Needs: C, 3B, SS, SP
Similar needs to Jackson in that they have an aging Catcher who needs to be replaced in a few seasons.
The remainder of the system appears lopsided with an abundance of talent available for certain positions, and glaring ommissions at other positions.

Draft Expectations: Low
With no extra picks, and having lost his 2nd round pick due to free agent signings, tony23 is left with only 4 picks in the top 5 rounds. Pick no. 2 isn't until 100th overall.

Draft Preparation: To get anything out of this year's draft, tony23 had to make his 11th overall pick count. Very low scouting numbers across the board means the Sluggers had to get very lucky to pull down an adequate pick at number 11.

Prospects

Round 1 Pick 11
RF Francis Kelly - Considering the obstacles tony23 faced in finding a worthy candidate for the 11th overall pick, he did a credible job in finding Kelly. Kelly will be a very effective power hitter and has both the durability and makeup to maximize his potential, and play every day. He also has the base running skills to swipe a few bases, if he is played that way. Defensively, he is better suited to 1B where he will make fewer errors with his glove than in RF. If played properly, he should make several all-star appearances.
ML projection: 40-45 HR/.300-.310 BA/15 SB 

Round 3 Pick 100
SP Luis Montana - 3 plus pitches, outstanding velocity/control splits, and a good groundball/flyball ratio will allow Montana to excell in his rise through the minors. That, however, is as far as he will go. He may get pulled up to the bigs to fill in for injuries, but once there, the big bats will feed on him. Look for a AAA ceiling.
ML projection: Emergency replacement
  
Round 4 Pick 132
RP Esmerling Nunez - Very similar to Montana in that he should have no problem rising through the minor league bullpens until he hits a brick wall at AAA.

Round 5 Pick 164
LF Antonio Song - Like Kelly, he should be moved to 1B to cut back on errors. Offensively he could rise to the high minors, but idealy you would like to see more power from your 1B. Watch for him to bounce around once he reaches AA.

Hidden Gems: none foreseeable

Overall Grade: D
Francis Kelly saved this from being a total disaster, but even with him, none of the real long range needs were addressed. The few areas where the sluggers have a surplus of talent is where they used their higher draft choices.

S18 Draft Review by holer

Jackson Colonels

Needs: C, SP, RP
Stud C Wes Dickerson is beginning to age and a suitable future replacement needs to be found now. Talented short relief specialists also seem to be in short supply.

Draft Expectations: Moderate
Having lost a top 30 pick through FA signings, ml4ku still has 7 picks in the top 5 rounds to work with. Luckily, catchers and relief pitchers are amongst the easiest positions to still find decent talent below the top 30.

Draft Preparation: ml4ku has chosen to lean heavily on more polished, and well known, college talent, rather than dip into the youngsters at the high school level. He also prefers home-grown talent over the more unpredictable foreign market. A very low 8 mill prospect budget is not surprising given his lack of a pricey top 30 pick, or his reluctance to reach outside of North America.

Round 1 Supp Pick 41
2B Carlos Cortes - about as safe a pick as humanly possible, Stanford grad Cortes provides maturity, leadership, and intelligence to go along with a bit of talent as well. Although he won't break any records, he will show up to play every day. Not bad for pick no. 41
ML projections: 10-15 HR/.270 BA/15 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 54
RP Joaquin Crespo - Innings, innings, and more innings. Remember Mark Eichhorn? Well, here he is again! Nothing flashy, just doing the job between the starter and the short relief guys.
ML projections: 80-90 G/110-130 IP/5-10 W/5 SV/.270 OAV

Round 2 Pick 61
RF Miguel Andino - discount RF. The guy you have on your team until you find someone better. Has both power and baserunning skills which should keep him in the bigs for a few years.
ML projections: 25 HR/.240-.250 BA/15-20 SB

Round 2 Pick 86
LF Justin Springer - May see limited ML action. Essentially a career AAA player

Round 3 Pick 118
3B Fausto Belliard - Will max out at AAA, probably with a shift to RF.

Round 4 Pick 150
SP Zephyr Randolph - no hope of signing. Mother needs to get her head out of the clouds (or other places)

Round 5 Pick 182
SP Jack Coke - very solid minor league pitcher, Coke does not have the splits to make the final jump. Maybe he should look at getting his pilot's licence.

Hidden Gems: none foreseeable

Overall Grade: B
To pick up 3 potential ML players without a top 30 pick is no small feat. Considering ml4ku likes to build primarily through trades and free agency, he did pretty well.

Thursday, March 31, 2011

S18 Draft Review by holer

AL South

Wichita Rocks
Needs: CF, SP. Also, overall defensive ability at the skill positions could be upgraded

Draft Expectations: Very High. With 3 1st round picks and 8 picks in the first 5 rounds, Wichita should expect a solid influx of fresh talent into the system.

Draft Preparation: With so many picks at the top end you would think barjaz would have spent more heavily on scouting. On a more positive note, barjaz maximized his prospect budget to ensure he had the cash available to sign whomever he wanted.

Prospects

Round 1 Pick 18
 2B Robin Shipley  - high school standout with solid defensive ability, a strong bat, and blazing speed to combine with great baserunning instincts. Shipley is a prototypical 5 tool player. A steal at No. 18 overall, he will quickly ascend the minor league ladder and have a solid ML career. His outstanding range will make him a yearly contender for the 2B Gold Glove, and look for several all-star selections as well.
ML projection: 15-20 HR/.285 BA/50-60 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 38
 3B Achilles Hogan  - Another high school star, Achilles is not the polished player Shipley is. His defense is mediocre at best for a 3B and may be better suited to RF. although he can run, at the ML level he needs to be selective or he could cost his team runs, and ultimately, some games. That being said, he is a solid hitter and should have no problem finding work on an ML team somewhere.
ML projection: 20-25 HR/.260-.270 BA/10-15 SB

Round 1 Supp Pick 49
SP Butch Cradle  - A highly talented pitcher, Cradle would have gone much higher in the draft if not for his significant control problems. He was a legend in junior college for beaning the opposing team's mascot with wild pitches on 3 seperate occasions (New Yorkers do love their unusual sources of entertainment don't they?) At pick No. 49 he does present a worthwhile gamble.
ML projection: 10-12 W/3.80 ERA/150K/110BB/.220 OAV

Round 2 Pick 62
SS Charley Kimbrel  - Miscast as a SS, Kimbel is much better suited for 3B, a position which he would be a defensive stud. He is not a basestealing threat, but does run the bases capably. Offensively, he consistently puts the bat on the ball, but only with a modicum of success. At best he can fill in at the ML level as a utility infielder as ML pitching will overwhelm him.
ML projection: spot duty

Round 2 Pick 75
CF Rob Vining  - Outstanding defensive CF, Vining is a solid pickup at No. 75 overall. He can easily fill in at any OF position in a defensive role, plus his speed and baserunning make him a solid pinch running option.
ML projection: role player in close games

Round 3 Pick 107
LF Harry Romo  - Not enough talent in any one area to warrant time in big leagues. May see a cup of coffee as an emergency replacement

Round 4 Pick 139
SS Marv Burke  - Another outstanding find at No. 139 overall. Easily capable of filling in at any position defensively at the big league level. His uncanny ability to hit left-handed pitching will also earn him at-bats in that capacity as a pinch-hitter.
ML projection: role player in close games

Round 5 Pick 171
2B Clem Haren - Huge signability issues. Good luck on that 5.5 mil bonus there buddy!

Hidden Gems: RP Farmer Torres ?

Overall grade: A
Amazing how barjaz finds such solid top-end talent with such a low scouting budget.